Why Obama's Laying Back is Brilliant

As I've said before, although not apparently a non-religious topic, because a Democratic President will almost indefinitely be better for the non-religious citizens I would like to discuss Obama's significant absence from the spotlight and McCain's alleged "jump" in the polls.

First, I'd like to point out that thus far every decision the Obama camp has made appears to have been carefully thought out and, most importantly, successfull. Right-wing pundits try to play his lead off by saying it's not big enough, but are they going to make the same claim if he wins? "Oh sure, he won, but if he was really so great he should have won by more." Whatever guys, enjoy that comforting thought while he's instituting universal health-care. The truth is, his average lead in the polls has been, at times, quite high, and at other times quite low, but it has been a lead for months.

Second, I'd like to emphasize the pointlessness of listening to the political pundits. Here, let me ruin the surprise for you, the left-wing pundits are going to say Obama's going to win and McCain's an old idiot, and the right-wing pundits are going to say McCain's going to win and Obama's a naive elitist. LOOK AT THE POLLS. They're not perfect, but they represent the best indicator of how the people are going to vote because the information is coming from the voters themselves. Some might argue that they are skewed because they do not necessarily poll voters, but merely people who answer polls, blah, blah, blah. Doesn't matter. So what, should we instead listen to the opinions of a few people simply because they're on tv? The polls are still the best indicator, despite the fact that they are not perfect. So look at a list of all the Obama v. McCain polls here. If you buy into the argument that Obama isn't winning by enough, look at the Bush v. Kerry polls here, for a comparison. You'll see that Obama's numbers are just as impressive as either candidate's when they were in the lead, the only difference is that Obama has been in the lead for a much longer time than either of those candidates ever was.

Finally, the issue of Obama's vacation. As with every decision ever made by the Obama camp, this one was undoubtedly very calculated, and I think it was win-win. It's obviously important for him to be rested before the final stretch, but I also think it was important for him to give McCain time to make up some ground. One of the problems with being in the lead for so long is that voters will become apathetic, his victory will seem like a foregone conclusion and voter- turnout will plummet. Every single time Obama has flipped the switch and started campaigning, talking, and advertising, his numbers go up. I'm calling the Obama Law. He's one of the few candidates who has the ability to voluntarily make is numbers climb. He demonstrated this talent in the primaries, and Hillary demonstrated her lack of that talent. Even when she "turned it on" she could only win those primaries she was supposed to win like Pennsylvania. Mind you, this isn't some kind of rationalization of any jump in the polls that McCain has seen, because he hasn't really seen a jump in the polls. For two or three months Obama was winning EVERY poll. That leads to apathy. Why not take a vacation, get some rest, get out of the spot light, prevent people from getting desensitized to you and allow your opponent to look enough like a contender to keep democrats and obamindependents interested?

But McCain is only winning a poll every five or six polls, and importantly, the only polls that put him significantly ahead have small sample sizes, and only one recent poll with a large sample size (+ 2000) puts him ahead and only by 1 point. Meanwhile, Obama has six large sample polls that place him ahead, and by much more than 1 point, not to mention the dozens of smaller polls that put Obama ahead. So I'm not saying Obama has given, or plans on giving, up the lead. On the contrary, if McCain ever takes the lead, all credit should be given to him for that accomplishment. That will mean Obama messed up. These occasional wins by McCain, however, even if not orchestrated by Obama (though I believe they are), I believe will work in his favor. The right-wing pundits will undoubtedly try to play it off as if it is a sign that McCain's stock is on the rise, undoubtedly by saying things like, "Is the tide turning for McCain?" And they may be right. But in the end, occasional wins look more like statistical anomalies. McCain needs either consistent wins that make him look like a legitimate competitor that conservatives should go out and vote for, or he needs democrats and obamindependents to stay home on election day. These occasional wins merely motivate Obama's supporters to go out and vote, while highlighting how little of a chance McCain actually has of winning to conservatives who have mixed feelings about the guy in the first place.